Monday, January 5, 2015

2015 Hall of Fame Ballot

It is time for my 2015 Hall of Fame Ballot. As I mentioned last year, my process begins with the Bill James Hall of Fame Career Standards Number (BJHCS) and the Jay Jaffe War Score System(JAWS). The BJHCS numbers needs to be over 50 and the JAWS number needs to be greater than the JAWS number of the average Hall of Famer. The following players qualify under the BJHCS:

Barry Bonds76
Roger Clemens73
Randy Johnson65
Mike Piazza62
Gary Sheffield61
Pedro Martinez60
Jeff Bagwell59
Larry Walker58
Craig Biggio57
Pete Rose55
Mike Mussina54
Sammy Sosa52
Jeff Kent51
Edgar Martinez50

Pete Rose? One of my big pet peeves is that Pete Rose is not on the ballot. I have no issue with him being banned for life. He broke baseball's cardinal rule. However, the rule that banned players can't appear on the ballot was made AFTER Rose was banned. Joe Jackson who was banned in 1920, appeared on the first Hall of Fame Ballot in 1936. MLB says the rule was always implied and they wanted to make it official. It is not fair.

Last year, I left off the known steroid users because of this. I am not going to do that this year, instead I am going to pretend that Pete Rose is on the ballot and I will judge him like I judge all the others.

The following players qualify under the JAWS system. They are listed in order of total JAWS number and the value given is the number of points they are ahead of the average Hall of Famer at their position.

PlayerJAWS Differential
Barry Bonds65
Roger Clemens41
Randy Johnson20
Pedro Martinez9
Pete Rose9
Curt Schilling3
Jeff Bagwell10
Mike Mussina2
Larry Walker1
Alan Trammell3
Edgar Martinez1
Tim Raines3
Mike Piazza8

There is one glaring omission, at least in my mind, from both lists and that is John Smoltz. Smoltz has a BJHCS number of just 44 and his JAWS differential is -8. I researched further to see if his stint as a reliever hurt him since he is being judged against other starting pitchers. That wasn't the case. JAWS also calculates a 7 year peak for each player. Smoltz had a 7 year peak of 38.8 and the average Hall of Fame starting pitcher had a & year peak of 50.2. Smoltz falls into that Curt Schilling mold, does the postseason make up for numbers that don't quite measure up over all their regular seasons?

Ten players made both lists and while it is far from perfect, here is my ballot for the 2015 Hall of Fame

Pete Rose

1 comment:

  1. Every time I look at the numbers, I wonder why Smoltz is always considered such a lock.