Skip to main content

2014 Hall of Fame Ballot


The goal when determining my Hall of Fame Ballot was to be objective with some subjectivity thrown in.

I am a Bill James guy, love the numbers and a self proclaimed baseball nerd. I realize that these numbers are not perfect but they are much better than the natural biases that we all have. The sabermetrics should confirm what you see and if they don’t then you need to take a closer look as to why. Often times they don’t match up because of that bias. The best example is Derek Jeter and his fielding. You see him make the jump throw on ESPN or diving into the stands against the Red Sox and you are led to believe he is a great defensive SS. The numbers, without bias, tell us he has been pretty average defensively for most of his career and a liability the last few years.

With that in mind, I focused on a couple of numbers when trying to determine who should make the Hall of Fame from this 2014 ballot.

The first number I looked at was the Bill James Hall of Career Standards (JHCS). As I mentioned, I am a Bill James guy. The JHCS is a number from 0-100 with 50 being an average Hall of Famer. There are 14 guys on the 2014 ballot who have a number of 50 or higher.

The next number I look at is the Jaffe War Score System (JAWS). This system combines a player’s career WAR with their 7-year peak WAR totals and it allows you to compare a player with the average Hall of Famer at their position. There are 14 guys with a higher JAWS than the average Hall of Famer at their position.

Curt Schilling did not have a JHCS above 50 but did have a JAWS rating that was above the average rating for Hall of Fame pitchers.

Conversely, Sammy Sosa had a 58.4 JHCS but his JAWS number was slightly below the average Hall of Fame outfielder.

When all said and done there are 13 players on the ballot that have their JHCS number above 50 and have a JAWS rating above the average Hall of Famer for their position.

Mark McGwire failed in both these categories. He had a JHCS of 42 and his JAWS rating was two points below the average Hall of Fame first baseman. This confirms my belief that McGwire should never be in the Hall of Fame and it has nothing to do with the steroids dilemna. People assume if you don’t vote for McGwire it is because of the steroid issue. That is not necessarily the case. The same can be said for Sammy Sosa. Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens are another case entirely.



Here are the 11 players who pass my objective test:


I can only vote for 10 and this is where my subjectivity comes into play.

Barry Bonds is a Hall of Famer regardless of what he did steroid wise. He does not belong where he does on many of the all time statistical lists but he is a Hall of Famer. I just can’t vote for him right now.

The same goes for Roger Clemens. I have come full circle and then did a 180 and then a 270 when it comes to the steroid issue and the Hall of Fame.

Here is where I stand currently: (Subject to change)

If a player has been caught using steroids or linked to steroids(not just speculation), a few things need to happen before I will vote for them.


1) Their stats need to be impressive, they can’t be borderline. Clemens and Bonds are examples of impressive stats.

2) They need to admit to their steroid use and be honest about it. This has yet to happen with anyone. Andy Pettitte used the injury excuse and it was just one time. McGwire fought back tears as he said he really didn't think it helped him. Alex Rodriguez said his cousin injected him and wasn't sure if he even did it right. Barry Bonds said he never knowingly took them and of course Roger Clemens says he was just getting injections of B12 in his ass.   

Barry Bonds should say something like this: “I was sick and tired of hearing about Sosa and McGwire. I have more talent in my pinky finger than they have in their whole bloated bodies. I knew they were juicing so I decided to juice too. I wanted to show all you clowns who think you know baseball what someone like me could do on that stuff. My stats speak for themselves”

If Barry Bonds said that I might go out and buy his jersey.

Roger Clemens should say something like this: “Duquette is an idiot. He said I was in the twilight of my career and used my win/loss record over my last four years in Boston as proof? Are you kidding me? I was still one of the top pitchers in the game. I got awful run support, an awful bullpen and had Stonehenge for defense and he wants to call out my record? Look at my ERA over those last four years, my WHIP. I did it while others were juicing. So I went to Toronto and decided to shove it in Duquette’s face. I started juicing to be on a level playing field with everyone else. Plain and simple”

He might be my hero again if he says that.

3) Pete Rose needs to be on the ballot for 15 years or until he is elected, whichever comes first. I have no issue with a writer deciding not to vote for Pete Rose but it is absolutely asinine to make a rule that says he can’t be on the ballot.

Joe Jackson was on the first Hall of Fame ballot some 15 year after he was banned from baseball. In Rose’s case though they came up with a new rule AFTER he was banned saying no banned players can be on the Hall of Fame ballot. What kind of crap is that?

I understand the argument that everyday he was in the clubhouse he saw a sign that read if you gamble on baseball you will be banned for life. The sign never read that you will also be banned from the Hall of Fame. Rose did nothing to inflate his numbers. He committed a crime.

He should be banned from baseball but should have been on the ballot years ago. There is no excuse for that. I have a hard time voting for the steroid guys who are on the ballot when Rose never got his chance to be on the ballot.

With all of that in mind, here is my 2014 Hall of Fame Ballot:


Jeff Bagwell



Bonds, Clemens, Palmerio left off because of my steroid rule. I understand that there is speculation about Bagwell and Piazza but I have a hard time punishing those without substantial proof. I understand that is tough line to straddle.

Edgar Martinez is left off because he primarily was a DH. I have no issue voting for a DH but his numbers need to really be outstanding. His JAWS number is above average because they are comparing him with Hall of Fame third and first baseman. There is not a Hall of Fame DH to compare him with. His JHCS is right at 50. It needs to be much higher for someone who just played DH. I feel the same way about David Ortiz . I know that was the next question.

That is my ballot. I don’t think nine guys will actually get in though. Maddux, Glavine and Thomas should be locks and I have a feeling those will be the only three that will get in.

Disagree? Tweet at me @thepeskypole6

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

The Greatness of George Brett

One of my all time favorite non-Red Sox players is George Brett. He is in that class of guys like Chipper Jones, Willie Mays, and Pete Rose. Guys who never played for the Red Sox but I wish they had.

I have always liked Brett and I even got to see him play 6 games in Fenway Park in 1990 and 1991. I recently went down a George Brett rabbit hole on the internet and I was reminded why I really liked him as a player.

The first thing I loved about him is that he hated the Yankees and still hates the Yankees. The Royals and the Yankees had some battles during the 70s and 80s and Brett was right in the middle of it all.

Brett was also a Yankee Killer, especially in the playoffs. Brett played in 17 postseason games against the Yankees and had 24 hits, 6 homers and 14 RBI. Not bad.

Here he is going deep three times in Game 3 of the 1978 ALCS



We all know what a prick Goose Gossage has become, here is Brett turning on a Gossage fastball in 1980 and sending it into the third deck of Yankee S…

A Homer and a Suicide: The Life of a Gay Red Sox Outfielder?

Ted Williams homered in his last at bat off Jack Fisher of the Baltimore Orioles. Williams was supposedly the only player in the history of baseball to retire after sending one deep. The great John Thorn found that hard to believe and through research discovered others who homered in their final at-bat. You can read his piece on that right here. Ted Williams was not the only player to do it and he wasn't even the only Red Sox outfielder to do it. Chick Stahl did it first on October 6, 1906 off of Tom Hughes of the New York Highlanders (Yankees). It was Chick Stahl's 36th and final home-run of his very successful career. He was just 33 years old and had played in his final game. Nobody knew it at the time. Stahl hit .305 for his career, led the league in triples in 1904 and would be a key player in the Boston Americans (Red Sox) winning the 1903 World Series. A month after his last game Stahl would get married but in March of the next year he would kill himself by drinking carb…

Willie Mays Would Have Had It

"Willie would have had it." I heard it the first time I went to a baseball game and have heard it or thought about it at every game since. The words would come from my father as he tried to teach me about the greatness of Willie Mays. Fly balls that hit warning track or that would drop in front of or to the side of an outfielder would get the same comment from my Dad, "Willie would have had it".


My father grew up a Mays fan and was surrounded by Mickey Mantle fans. His neighborhood was just one of the many neighborhoods where fans of all ages debated over who was better. Mantle fans would talk about his ability to switch hit and when Mantle would struggle to match up with Willie they would argue it was only because of his bad knees. My father would respond accordingly, "fine, Mickey is the best centerfielder with bad knees and Willie is just the best centerfielder".

I was born in 1974, a year after Willie Mays played his final game. I never got to see hi…