Thursday, October 23, 2014

NFL Power Rankings and Predictions: Week 8

The  Indianapolis Colts take over the top spot in the power rankings. Remember, these power ranking numbers are solely based on yardage differential and the opponents played and when you played them. Here are the power rankings heading into Week 8

TeamPower NumberRank
Broncos152
Saints86
Seahawks78
Bengals-1129
Lions014
Texans49
Packers-319
Cardinals014
Eagles311
Chargers-218
Niners95
Patriots-319
Panthers-319
Redskins-627
Browns-319
Bills213
Steelers-426
Titans-1331
Jets86
Colts171
Bears-319
Ravens49
Giants014
Falcons-319
Chiefs114
Raiders-1532
Rams-1230
Dolphins143
Vikings-319
Cowboys311
Bucs-728
Jags014

I wanted to do something a little different this week with the power rankings and add a prediction section. I have referenced this before but I wanted to share fully what I do each week to prepare for the games each week. The power number for each team in comparison with other teams is a real number in terms of how they should perform against each other. The only change you need to make is add three points for the home team. If you bet every game starting in Week 2 using the given point spread and the power ranking numbers you would have a record of 50-39. Here are the predictions for the games this week.

WEEK 8
AwayHomePredictorBet
ChargersBroncosBroncos by 20Broncos -8
LionsFalconsEvenFalcons +4.5
RamsChiefsChiefs by 26Chiefs -7
TexansTitansTexans by 13Texans -3
VikingsBuccaneersVikings by 1Vikings +3
SeahawksPanthersSeahawks by 7Seahawks -5.5
RavensBengalsRavens by 12Ravens -1
DolphinsJagsDolphins by 11Dolphins -6
BearsPatriotsPatriots by 3Bears +6
BillsJetsJets by 9Jets -3
EaglesCardinalsEvenEagles +2.5
RaidersBrownsBrowns by 15Browns -7
ColtsSteelersColts by 18Colts -3.5
PackersSaintsSaints by 14Saints Even
RedskinsCowboysCowboys by 12Cowboys -10

As you can see, the predictions are heavily sided to the favorites this week. That always raises a red flag to me since the key to winning by betting on the NFL is to take the underdogs. We will see how it all plays out.

Here is how it looked last week:

WEEK 7
AwayHomePredictorBetResult
JetsPatriotsPatriots by 22Patriots -10L
VikingsBillsBills by 11Bills -5.5L
GiantsCowboysCowboys by 25Cowboys -6.5W
FalconsRavensRavens by 13Ravens -7W
TitansRedskinsRedskins by 12Redskins -6L
SeahawksRamsRams by 11Rams +7W
BrownsJagsBrowns by 2Jags +6W
BengalsColtsColts by 17Colts -3.5W
DolphinsBearsBears by 19Bears -4L
SaintsLionsEvenSaints +3L
PanthersPackersPackers by 14Packers -7W
ChiefsChargersChargers by 3Chiefs +4W
CardinalsRaidersRaiders by 19Raiders +4L
NinersBroncosNiners by 2Niners +6.5L
TexansSteelersSteelers by 20Steelers -3.5W
Week8 - 7
Season50 - 39

Bet at 5dimes

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

1975 Red Sox Simulation: Red Sox Complete Sweep of Angels

The Red Sox completed their sweep of the Angels with a 3-1 victory. Bill Lee went the distance improving to 3-1 while Cecil Cooper made his return to the lineup a big one as he went 2-3 with two doubles and two runs batted in.

The slumping Cooper has been on the bench for the last couple weeks but made the most of his opportunity today. Fred Lynn hit a solo homer to give the Red Sox some insurance.

The Red Sox head to Oakland next to face the first place AL West Athletics.






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1975 Red Sox Simulation: Sox Hold Off Angels

The Red Sox have their first winning streak since opening the season 5-0 as they held off the Angels 3-2 to climb a game over .500

The Sox jumped out to a 3-0 lead thanks to a bases loaded walk by Dwight Evans and a two run single by Bob Montgomery.

Luis Tiant gave two runs back and tired in the 7th inning. Dick Drago was summoned and he was almost perfect picking up a seven out save.

The Red Sox will go for the sweep tomorrow as Bill Lee takes the ball.




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Tuesday, October 21, 2014

2001 New England Patriots Simulation: Week 2

Week 2 of the 2001 season was the week in which it all changed for the Patriots franchise. Drew Bledsoe was hurt and Tom Brady stepped into the role of a lifetime. The Patriots would go on to lose that game but of course would go on to win it all. You can view the actual box score of that game here

In Week 2 of our simulation, Brady made his second start of his career trying to bring the Patriots to 1-1 after a tough loss to the Bengals the previous week. The story of the game was the Patriots defense. They dominated the game and helped the Patriots take a 20-3 lead. It was so bad that the Jets benched Vinny Testaverde and brought in Chad Pennington. Pennington provided a spark and led the Jets to ten unanswered points.

The Patriots would survive though thanks to the running of Antowain Smith and even their record at 1-1 with a 20-13 win.

Tom Brady wasn't spectacular but was solid and boasts 103 QB rating through the first two games of his career.

The Patriots will host the Colts next week marking the first meeting of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.






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NFL Betting Trends: Week 7


The underdogs had a winning week for the first time since Week 4. We are approaching the midway point of the season and the underdogs are just below 55%. Last season, the dogs won just 48% of the time against the spread. 



NFL Betting TrendsRecord
Week 7 Underdogs Record ATS8 - 7
Underdogs Overall Record ATS55 - 50 -1
Last Week6 - 9
Week 7 Underdogs Straight Up4 - 11
Underdogs Straight Up Overall34 - 71 - 1
Last Week2 - 12 - 1


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Wednesday, October 15, 2014

NFL Power Rankings: Week 7

The Chargers may have won their game but their lackluster performance dropped them out of the top spot in the power rankings. The Bears and Niners are now tied for the top spot with the Cowboys and Patriots nipping at their heals. Remember, the power ranking numbers are based on yardage differential and the opponents power number when they appeared on each team's schedule. If you used the power numbers to bet on games using point spreads you would be 42-32 on the season. (Home team get 3 points added to their power number)

Here are the power rankings after Week 6


TeamPower NumberRank
Broncos96
Saints67
Seahawks-726
Bengals-421
Lions312
Texans-320
Packers312
Cardinals-1632
Eagles312
Chargers58
Niners141
Patriots123
Panthers-829
Redskins-524
Browns116
Bills411
Steelers312
Titans-1431
Jets-726
Colts105
Bears141
Ravens58
Giants-1030
Falcons-524
Chiefs58
Raiders018
Rams116
Dolphins-219
Vikings-421
Cowboys123
Bucs-726
Jags-421




Bet at 5dimes