Wednesday, October 15, 2014

NFL Power Rankings: Week 6

The Chargers may have won their game but their lackluster performance dropped them out of the top spot in the power rankings. The Bears and Niners are now tied for the top spot with the Cowboys and Patriots nipping at their heals. Remember, the power ranking numbers are based on yardage differential and the opponents power number when they appeared on each team's schedule. If you used the power numbers to bet on games using point spreads you would be 42-32 on the season. (Home team get 3 points added to their power number)

Here are the power rankings after Week 6

TeamPower NumberRank
Broncos96
Saints67
Seahawks-726
Bengals-421
Lions312
Texans-320
Packers312
Cardinals-1632
Eagles312
Chargers58
Niners141
Patriots123
Panthers-829
Redskins-524
Browns116
Bills411
Steelers312
Titans-1431
Jets-726
Colts105
Bears141
Ravens58
Giants-1030
Falcons-524
Chiefs58
Raiders018
Rams116
Dolphins-219
Vikings-421
Cowboys123
Bucs-726
Jags-421




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2001 New England Patriots Simulation: Week 1


It is hard to believe it has been 13 seasons since the Patriots became The Patriots. Tom Brady and the Patriots have righted the ship but just a few weeks ago the demise of these Patriots was being discussed. For all the Patriots success, they have not won it all in ten years. However, they have the most wins in the NFL over the last 13 seasons.

Using Second and Ten football simulator, I have gone back in time to 2001 and have taken control of the Patriots as head coach. Can I lead the Patriots to the title?

In real life, the Patriots of 2001 lost three of their first four. Drew Bledsoe started the first two games before getting injured and a guy named Brady took over.

In Brady's first eight games as a starter he went just 5-3 before the Pats got red hot finishing the regular season with five straight wins and another four straight in the playoffs.

We pick up the simulation in Cincinnati. The real 2001 Patriots lost this game 23-17, you can view the box score here.

The results in the simulation were not much different. The Bengals dominated in every phase of the game yet the Patriots had a chance to tie the game with 12 seconds left. It wasn't meant to be as Adam Vinatieri missed a 50 yard FG giving the Bengals a 24-21 win.

One minor change, was that it was Drew Bledsoe getting the start at QB. I went ahead and gave Brady the reigns. Brady played well but was under pressure all day long. The Jets come to New England for Week 2, it was the game that changed history 13 years ago, right now I am just looking to get the Pats to 1-1 in the simulation.







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NFL Betting Trends: Week 6

The underdogs continue to slump. Last season the favorites ruled and many saw it as an aberration and as a sign that this year the underdogs would really rule. The dogs got off to a great start this season but lately the favorites have closed the gap. My wallet is hurting because of it. In the last 30 games, the underdog has won the game outright just 5 times.



NFL Betting TrendsRecord
Week 6 Underdogs Record ATS6 - 9
Underdogs Overall Record ATS47 - 43 -1
Last Week7 - 7 - 1
Week 6 Underdogs Straight Up2 - 12 - 1
Underdogs Straight Up Overall30 - 60 - 1
Last Week3 - 12


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Monday, October 13, 2014

1975 Red Sox Simulation: Sox Capitalize on Angel Errors


The Red Sox ended their three game losing streak, got back to .500 and started out their west coast trip with a win as they downed the Angels 3-1. Rick Wise came up big for the Sox getting his third win of the year.

The Red Sox offense continues to struggle but came up with two timely hits after Angel errors which kept innings going. Jim Rice had a two out, two run single in the third inning after an error by Bruce Bochte and Dwight Evans added an RBI double in the sixth inning after a Billy Smith error.

Roger Moret came in and recorded a four out save, his first save of the year.

Luis Tiant will match up with Frank Tanana tomorrow.




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Saturday, October 11, 2014

Free NFL Picks: Week 6

The slump has brought me to 13-12 for the season and in desperate need of a perfect week. Thursday already gave me a bad omen. I felt strongly about the Colts covering and thought hard about making it one of my five picks. However, the curse of Thursday night scared me off. What happened? The Colts covered. This is what happens when you are in a slump.

So here we go. Desperation time!

Dolphins +3.5 over the Packers

I love the home dogs especially when my power rankings tell me the Dolphins are the better team when it comes to yardage differential.

Bills +3 over the Patriots

Once again, a home underdog that according to my power rankings are the better team

Chargers -7 over the Raiders

The Raiders are really bad and the Chargers are really good. I only have to give up 7 points? Sign me up!

Redskins +3 over the Cardinals

I keep having the faith in these Skins. They are underrated and the Cards are overrated. Give me the points.

Giants +3 over the Eagles

Eagles and their record is a mirage. The Giants are the better team and they are getting the points. Take them!


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Friday, October 10, 2014

SEC Football Power Rankings and Week 7 Predictions

This is the second year I have created and charted season long NFL Power Rankings based on yardage differential only. I wanted to incorporate the same metrics in the college game with a few tweaks here and there. 

The first issue was the pure size of college football and the amount of teams. I decided I would just break down the SEC and only use conference games as a measure. All teams would start the season with a power number of 0 and it would change based on yardage differential in their conference games.

Last week I calculated the power rankings for the first time but did not post them. I wanted a little bigger sample size. However, I used the calculated power rankings to predict and handicap last week's SEC games and the results were almost perfect. The Florida/Tennessee game was the only one that did not go along with the power numbers. Here is a look at what the power ranking predictor said last week.

The Bama/Ole Miss game was interesting. Coming into the game last week Ole Miss was one point better in the power rating and five points better at home. However, Bama beat Ole Miss when it came to the yardage differential. Even after the loss, Alabama still has the highest power rating in the conference.

Week 6
AwayHomePredictorBetResult
South CarolinaKentuckyUK wins by 6UK +3.5W
FloridaTennesseeTennessee wins by 16Tennessee -2.5L
Texas A&MMiss StateMiss State wins by 8Miss State -2.5W
AlabamaOle MissOle Miss wins by 5Ole Miss +4.5W
VandyGeorgiaUGA wins by 16Vandy +33.5W
LSUAuburnAuburn wins by 19Auburn -7.5W
5 - 1

Here are the updated power rankings through Week 6:

TeamPower NumberRankConference Wins
Alabama2011
Auburn932
Texas A&M642
Ole Miss1122
Miss State452
Georgia-692
LSU-7120
Missouri-381
South Carolina262
Arkansas070
Tennessee-10130
Florida-692
Kentucky-692
Vanderbilt-11140

Now we take a look at the Week 7 games and see what the power ranking predictor comes up with keeping in mind that the home team gets an automatic 4 point boost to their power ranking. In the NFL, the home team gets a 3 point boost in their power number.

Week 7
AwayHomePredictorBet
GeorgiaMissouriMIZZ by 7MIZZ +3
AuburnMiss StateAUB by 1MSU +3
AlabamaArkansasBama by 16Bama -10
LSUFloridaUF by 5UF +3
Ole MissTexas A&MOle Miss by 1OLE Miss +3

I feel good about four of these five games. The one game I disagree with is the Ole Miss/Texas A&M game. The power numbers give Ole Miss the slight advantage but teams tend to struggle the week after playing Alabama. Throw in the fact that Ole Miss had an emotional win and all signs point to Ole Miss playing their worst game of the year. I like Texas A&M to win going away on Saturday.

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Tuesday, October 7, 2014

NFL Power Rankings: Week 5

The San Diego Chargers take hold of the top spot with the Broncos making a huge jump. Remember, these power numbers are based on yardage differential and opponents played. The numbers can be used when handicapping games. From Week 2 on, if you bet using the weekly power rankings you would be 36-24 overall. This past week the rankings went 6-9. The worst week of the season.

TeamPower NumberRankWinsRank
Broncos11334
Saints67219
Seahawks41134
Bengals-72534
Lions01734
Texans-62334
Packers-22134
Cardinals-153234
Eagles-72541
Chargers12141
Niners10434
Patriots5934
Panthers-52234
Redskins-725127
Browns116219
Bills10434
Steelers21434
Titans-623127
Jets-930127
Colts12134
Bears017219
Ravens41134
Giants-11934
Falcons96219
Chiefs59219
Raiders-725031
Rams67127
Dolphins313219
Vikings-119219
Cowboys21441
Bucs-725219
Jags-1231031



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