For the regular season, underdogs barely had a winning record but they are off to a 3-1 start against the spread in the playoffs. Could the dogs get their revenge in the postseason? Vegas hopes so. Let's take a look at the four match-ups:
Chiefs at Patriots
The Patriots are in a weird spot. Nobody knows what to make of them right now. Are they really the team we saw at end the season? They look horrible.
I had the Chiefs overrated much of the season due to their pretty average yardage differential numbers. Those numbers have improved and in that category they are much better than the Patriots.
It is tough to go against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick but the numbers tell a worrisome story in this one. The Pats are vulnerable.
Pick: Take the Chiefs +4.5
Steelers at Broncos
The big story is at the QB spot for both teams. Will Ben Roethlisberger play and if he does play will he be able to actually throw the ball downfield? Is Peyton Manning washed up? These teams have been near the top of my power rankings all season with the Broncos slightly better. Take the points in this one.
Pick: Take the Steelers +7
Seahawks at Panthers
The Panthers have had a great season but their yardage differential numbers all year have been pretty average. The Panthers got a horrible break when the Vikings failed to knock out the Seahawks last week. I have the Seahawks 6 points better in this game. It will be a tough way for the Panthers to end their season if that holds true.
Pick: Take the Seahawks +1.5
Packers at Cardinals
The Packers at times look awful. They don't seem to have receivers who can get open and Aaron Rodgers doesn't seem to have a ton of time to throw the ball. The Cardinals spanked the Packers pretty good just a few weeks ago. Rematches this close together however tend to favor the team that was spanked the first time. In terms of yardage differential numbers, these teams are pretty even. Rodgers is the best player on the field and he is getting points.
Pick: Take the Packers +7
Can you hear all that barking? The numbers all point to the underdogs covering the spread this week. We will see.